高考真题2023年新课标全国I卷阅读D-群体智慧效应

困难

说明文

社会

本文是说明文。没有人是一座孤岛，文章陈述了“群体智慧”效应。实验表明，在某些情况下大量独立估计平均值可能是相当准确的。

On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

1907年3月7日，英国统计学家弗朗西斯·高尔顿(Francis Galton)发表了一篇论文，阐述了后来被称为“群体智慧”的效应。他进行的估计实验表明，在某些情况下，大量独立估计的平均值可能相当准确。

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

这种效应利用了这样一个事实:当人们犯错误时，这些错误并不总是相同的。有些人倾向于高估，有些人倾向于低估。当足够多的这些误差被平均在一起时，它们就会相互抵消，从而得到更准确的估计。如果人们是相似的，并且倾向于犯同样的错误，那么他们的错误就不会相互抵消。用更专业的术语来说，群体智慧要求人们的估计是独立的。如果由于某种原因，人们的错误变得相关或依赖，估计的准确性就会下降。

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.

但是，由华金·纳瓦加斯领导的一项新研究为这一经典现象提供了一个有趣的转折。这项研究的关键发现是，当人群被进一步分成更小的群体并允许进行讨论时，这些群体的平均值比同样数量的独立个体的平均值更准确。例如，从4个5人的讨论小组中得到的平均值比从20个独立个体中得到的平均值要准确得多。